:: St. Stephen's Musings ::

:: Friday, September 24, 2004 ::

Who Really Benefits From the Upcoming Presidential Election?

This is an amusing example of why a popular rumor--that both parties wouldn't mind all that much losing this presidential election--has a lot of merit. Let's take a peek into the crystal ball ourselves, shall we?

It is clear now that Bush has dug himself into a massive hole in Iraq and will find it difficult to climb out unscathed and scandal-free in the next 9-12 months. His second term will be filled with continued trouble abroad (Iran? North Korea?) and he will make a series of decisions that will certainly not be popular and quite likely not helpful for the nation's long term battle against terrorism.

This might not be so bad for the Republicans unless the Bush Administration continues to ignore both their fiscally conservative base and the "9/11 Democrats" regarding taxes, the deficit, Social Security and Medicare---which, given the the tunnel vision displayed thus far by Rove, Card et al., seems quite likely. With scandals and failure abroad mixed with negligence at home, a second Bush term will inexorably lead to huge Democratic Congressional wins in 2006 for sure and most likely in 2008 as well. President Hillary Clinton is not far away.

Not an attractive long term picture for conservatives to consider.

Kerry, if he wins, will inherit the very volatile situation in Iraq he clearly doesn't have the wisdom nor the resources to handle. His approval rating will stay well below 50% for much of 2005 and 2006. Exhausted by the whole ordeal in Iraq, voters will hammer him for any lack of resolve or arrogant shortsightedness so typical of Democratic presidents when they try their hand at foreign policy.

(Can anyone say Jimmy Carter in Iran and Afghanistan and Bill Clinton in....well, goodness, take your pick from one of the dozen or so foreign policy debacles of the 90's!).

Kerry will also make the devastating error every liberal in office seems destined to repeat when it comes to domestic issues; presenting a "centrist" face on the campaign trail and later infuriating a large section of the electorate when it becomes clear to all that his policy decisions are made solely by a combination of: a) increasing capitulation to his radical leftist base and b) the natural consequences of having a near total absence of anything resembling a coherent and moral worldview.

In a backlash for spinelessness abroad and moral vacuity at home, the voters will quickly wrest control of the House and Senate away from the DNC and give it back to the Republicans in 2006. After a series of scandals that will further weaken the Kerry Administration, Republicans will find another young, popular governor (if the Constitution is amended, could it be "Auwnuld"?) to crush him in 2008.

Not an attractive long term picture for liberals to consider.

So, all in all, I'm not sure which is worse: having one's candidate win or not come this November.

:: Karl :: 7:53:00 AM [Link] ::